On Wednesday April 2nd, Moir Group welcomed back Shane Oliver, AMP’s Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, for our first live economic outlook event in five years — and what a session it was.
In front of a full house at Chartered Accountants ANZ, Shane delivered his trademark combination of straight-talking clarity and expert insight, unpacking the key trends shaping Australia’s economic future and warning of the risks on the global stage.
Four insights that will shape the Australia’s economic future:
1. Trump’s tariffs is a new global wildcard
While speaking ahead of Donald Trump’s latest announcement, Shane cautioned that tariffs were “one of the biggest threats to global growth in 2025.” Just hours after the event, Trump delivered on that threat, unveiling a sweeping 10% tariff on all US imports, including from Australia.
Shane had already pointed out that Australia’s direct export exposure to the US is relatively small. “We won’t be the main target,” he explained. “But if this triggers a global trade war, everyone gets hit and that includes us.”
He also questioned the sustainability of Trump’s manufacturing push: “Americans don’t want to work in factories the way they did 50 years ago. If production reverts to the US, will they even have the workforce to support it?”
2. Australia is resilient, but not immune
Despite global uncertainty, Shane described Australia’s outlook as “still in good shape,” highlighting a 2% growth rate and low unemployment at 4.1%.
“The labour market’s been strong, particularly for high-level roles. We’ve seen a lot of resilience across sectors.”
He also noted that 2024 delivered “solid investment returns” and signs that GDP growth was picking up again.
However, with Trump’s tariffs now a reality, and Australian exports like beef, metals and pharmaceuticals potentially impacted, the picture may shift. Shane’s earlier warning now feels prescient: “If global growth slows because of protectionism, we’ll feel that through supply chains, markets and investor sentiment.”
3. Cost of living is the biggest issue on home soil
Closer to home, Shane called out the cost of living as “the biggest political and economic issue right now.” He pointed to housing affordability, rising rents, and record-high mortgage repayments as key challenges, especially for younger Australians.
“Millennials and Gen Z are going to carry the burden of this. That’s a long-term concern.”
4. There are five reasons for optimism
Despite the risks, Shane struck an optimistic tone as he wrapped up the session, reminding attendees not to get lost in the headlines.
“There’s a lot of noise out there. It’s important to keep things in perspective.”
He offered five reasons to remain confident in the year ahead:
- Inflation has rolled over
- Interest rates are trending down
- Any recession would likely be mild
- Trump (ironically) wants markets to rise
- AI is boosting productivity and long-term growth
Shane has been a trusted voice at Moir Group for many years. If you would like to learn more, last year Shane spoke about whether Australia was heading for growth or recession and in 2023, shared his thoughts on inflation, war, interest rates and recession in another fully occupied webinar.
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